Equity Analysis
Australia ASX 200 Index
Market Overview
The Australia Securities Exchange 200 Index rose 49 points, or 0.5%, on Wednesday to close at 8,966. It advanced for a fourth consecutive session and reached its highest level in two months. Sentiment was lifted by stronger U.S. futures, while investors focused on Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve meeting. Meanwhile, key details emerged around a temporary U.S.-Iran agreement that would allow oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of port blockades. Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday, in line with expectations, as the board weighed slowing economic growth against persistent inflation.

Most sectors finished higher, led by manufacturing, consumer services, and non-energy minerals. Index heavyweight BHP gained 0.6% and briefly touched a record high. Gold miners also rallied strongly on Middle East-related news, with Northern Star Resources rising 2.5% and Regis Resources jumping 6.1%. Three of the four major banks gained between 0.2% and 1.2%. In contrast, Karoon Energy plunged 13.4% after cutting its annual production guidance.

Technical Analysis
The ASX 200 closed up 0.54% on Wednesday, reaching a near one-month high around 8,965 after closing at 8,917.7 on Tuesday. The index moved higher throughout the session, led by gold, technology, and base metals, while coal, oil and gas, and property stocks finished lower. The index formed a medium bullish candle, held above the previous close, and has now risen for three consecutive sessions, forming a small ascending channel. The 9,000 level remains a psychological resistance zone, so the index is likely to consolidate in the short term before choosing its next breakout direction.

The index is trading above the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages, with short-, medium-, and longer-term averages aligned in a bullish configuration. This confirms the medium-term rebound trend. The 5-day moving average near 8,920 provides strong intraday support, while the 50-day moving average around 8,840 is the key medium-term bull-bear threshold. The RSI (14) is around 59, below the overbought threshold of 70, suggesting sufficient bullish momentum and further upside potential, although traders should watch for a pullback if the index spikes higher. MACD remains in a bullish daily crossover, with the red histogram expanding slightly, showing steady improvement in upside momentum and no bearish divergence. Volume increased moderately on Wednesday, indicating participation from incremental capital rather than a low-volume false breakout.

Trading Strategy
The following is for technical trading reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Leveraged trading losses may exceed initial capital.

Short-term intraday trading view: same day to 1-3 trading days, mainly for index futures.

Key Risk Warning
The RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% on June 16, but its tone remained hawkish and markets still price in the possibility of one further hike this year, with an implied probability around 55%. If upcoming inflation data rebounds and the RBA resumes tightening, high-yield-sensitive sectors such as banks and property could fall sharply, directly weighing on the ASX 200. Persistently high interest rates would also continue to suppress domestic consumption and real estate, potentially leading to downward earnings revisions for domestically exposed index heavyweights and limiting index upside.

China Shanghai Composite Index
Market Overview
On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% to close at 4,108, rebounding from the previous session’s decline, while the Shenzhen Component gained 1.31% to 15,881, rising for a third consecutive day. Investors responded positively to a series of major announcements on the opening day of the Lujiazui Forum. The People’s Bank of China hinted that it may use the overnight policy rate as the main benchmark, replacing the current seven-day reverse repo rate. Such a shift would bring China’s monetary policy framework closer to those of major global central banks, including the Federal Reserve. At the same time, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said Beijing intends to strengthen its financial legal framework by introducing counter-sanction measures in response to what he described as unreasonable foreign restrictions. Technology stocks led the gains, particularly Zhongji Innolight (+2.25%), Accelink Technologies (+1.62%), and NAURA Technology (+4.77%).

Technical Analysis
The Shanghai Composite opened lower and moved higher on Wednesday, closing at 4,108.08, up 0.40%. It successfully reclaimed the 30-day moving average around 4,107, indicating an improvement in the medium-term trend. However, structural divergence remained evident and turnover was still insufficient, suggesting the index may continue to fluctuate mainly within the 4,070-4,110 range in the short term. For trading, short-term positions may be maintained at around 50%-60% with a buy-low, sell-high approach, while medium-term positions may be kept at 70%-80% with strict stop-loss discipline.

The close at 4,108.08 marked the first effective move above the 30-day moving average since May 22, turning that level from resistance into support. Although volume increased from the previous session, it remained below the 120-day average volume line, indicating that turnover was not yet fully active and that the index still needs consolidation. The daily candle formed a small bullish bar and a higher-volume bullish engulfing pattern, showing strengthening bullish momentum. Intraday, the index recovered from a lower open caused by the pullback in U.S. tech stocks, and then gradually moved higher in the afternoon on institutional buying. On Thursday, the index is likely to maintain a choppy upward bias, with focus on whether it can break 4,110 and whether volume expands. A volume-backed breakout above 4,110 could open the way toward 4,130-4,150. If the index rises without sufficient volume and then pulls back, it is likely to continue consolidating within 4,070-4,110.

Currency Analysis
U.S. Dollar Index
The U.S. Dollar Index rose above 100.30 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since March, as traders digested the latest FOMC decision. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair. However, policymakers’ projections were interpreted as more hawkish than expected, with around half of FOMC members expecting at least one rate hike this year. The Fed also sharply raised its inflation forecasts. The 2026 PCE inflation projection was revised up from 2.7% in March to 3.6%, while core PCE inflation is now expected to reach 3.3%, up from the previous 2.7%. Traders have now fully priced in a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike before year-end. Meanwhile, Chair Warsh announced changes at the Fed, including five working groups to address the central bank’s communication framework, balance sheet, and other issues. The dollar strengthened broadly, with the largest gains against sterling and the euro.

At the start of the week, the Dollar Index remained weak, hovering near the 99.50-99.60 low area, while the bearish structure was unchanged. Trading volume was relatively light, with attention fully focused on the upcoming June Fed meeting. This was the first press conference under new Chair Warsh, and his comments on the inflation outlook and rate path were expected to fill the “black box” of his policy framework. Translating that policy logic into the technical picture, the market has already priced in part of the uncertainty. Technical indicators are moving lower in line with price action, with no bullish divergence, suggesting that bearish momentum still has room to extend. On the daily chart, the March 31 level at 100.64 is the bulls’ lifeline and the first key threshold for a potential trend reversal; 101.00 is medium-term resistance. On the downside, the 100.00 psychological level is a fragile short-term support. If the policy tone is confirmed as dovish, the index may quickly test Wednesday’s low at 99.49.

For today, traders may consider shorting the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.49, with a stop loss at 100.58 and targets at 100.05 and 100.00.

AUD/USD
Similar to other risk-sensitive currencies, AUD/USD pulled back sharply and tested the key 0.7000 support level ahead of the Asian open. The strong U.S. dollar weighed on sentiment toward the Australian dollar, and spot prices fell after the FOMC meeting. The Australian dollar had previously strengthened against the U.S. dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained a hawkish hold on Tuesday. As widely expected, the RBA decided to keep the official cash rate at 4.35% at the conclusion of its June monetary policy meeting. This pause followed three consecutive 25-basis-point hikes earlier this year. Although rates were left unchanged, board members said further tightening may still be needed to achieve the inflation target. They added that the RBA remains “focused on ensuring that inflation does not become entrenched after the high oil-price shock fades.” Positive developments around a U.S.-Iran peace agreement may support the Australian dollar as a risk asset. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that a new round of talks on a final peace agreement would begin in Switzerland on the same day.

The RBA’s decision to hold rates steady means policy has entered a wait-and-see phase, but it does not signal the end of the hiking cycle. Inflation that remains above target still leaves the central bank with room for further action. In the short term, the Australian dollar will be influenced not only by the RBA’s policy stance but also by the Fed’s rate path, the performance of the U.S. dollar, and shifts in global risk sentiment. On the daily chart, AUD/USD has staged a technical rebound after a notable decline and is now challenging a key moving-average area. The 14-day RSI has recovered from oversold territory but remains in a weak zone, indicating that bearish forces have not fully faded. If the pair can break decisively above resistance near the 100-day moving average at 0.7085, it may further test the 0.7100 round number and the moving-average resistance area around 0.7143. On the downside, the important psychological support near 0.7000 should be watched closely. A break below that level could open deeper downside toward 0.6947, the 150-day moving average.

For today, traders may consider going long AUD at 0.7003, with a stop loss at 0.6992 and targets at 0.7050 and 0.7050.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD continued to weaken after the Federal Reserve released its monetary policy decision, as both the statement and the dot plot were more hawkish than expected. Market participants moved quickly to price in the possibility of upcoming rate hikes, pushing the U.S. dollar to multi-week highs. According to The Wall Street Journal, after the preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement is signed, a two-month period of final negotiations will begin immediately. U.S. President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz may reopen by Friday and that Washington will allow Iran to immediately resume sales of oil and fuel as part of a deal to end the war. Hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement may support risk assets such as sterling in the short term. In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday. Governor Andrew Bailey believes the BoE can take its time assessing whether the energy-price increases caused by the Iran war will create lasting inflationary pressure.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading below 1.3300 and carries a mildly bearish short-term bias, as spot prices remain below a cluster of key technical reference points. The latest readings for the 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages are around 1.3475, above the current price, suggesting that the broader trend continues to cap rebounds. A reclaimed descending resistance trendline around 1.3553 remains a more distant upside barrier. Momentum is neutral to slightly weak, with the 14-day RSI hovering below the 50 line, suggesting that upside attempts may lack conviction unless buyers can clearly break above resistance. On the upside, near-term resistance is located around the former rising support trendline, now near 1.3445. Stronger supply is expected around the clustered moving averages near 1.3475. A sustained breakout above that area would expose the 1.3500 round number. With no clear structural support at current levels, if prices retreat from here, GBP/USD would face risk toward 1.3260, Wednesday’s low, followed by the 1.3320 psychological level.

For today, traders may consider going long GBP at 1.3275, with a stop loss at 1.3265 and targets at 1.3320 and 1.3340.

USD/JPY
USD/JPY edged higher during the Asian session but remained near the highest level since late April, reached last week. Spot prices are currently trading near the 160.50 intervention zone. The Federal Reserve was widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged and remove its easing bias from the accompanying statement, as inflation has proven more stubborn than expected. Market attention was focused on the updated economic projections, including the so-called dot plot. In addition, comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh were closely watched for fresh clues about the central bank’s policy path. The outlook will be critical for U.S. dollar price dynamics and may provide meaningful direction for USD/JPY. Ahead of this key central-bank event risk, the latest optimism around a temporary U.S.-Iran peace agreement weighed on the safe-haven dollar. Market speculation that authorities may intervene again to support the yen also limited USD/JPY gains. However, despite the Bank of Japan raising rates on Tuesday to the highest level since 1995, the yen still struggled to attract buying interest.

Technically, despite the recent impact of potential Japanese intervention, rate-hike expectations, and a weaker dollar, USD/JPY has remained strong. The pair may continue to rise, implying further yen depreciation. That said, because the yen has depreciated for an extended period, the safety margin for long-yen trades is also gradually increasing. USD/JPY is currently consolidating narrowly above 160, around 160.30, and retains a short-term bullish bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average at 159.83. The pair remains supported by this rising EMA, while the 14-day RSI on the daily chart is around 59.28, indicating solid but not overextended upward momentum and suggesting that buyers remain in control for now. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 20-day EMA near 159.83. A break below this level would imply weakening upside pressure and could trigger a deeper corrective pullback toward the May 20 low at 158.60. On the upside, the April 30 high at 160.73 and the 161.00 round number will remain important resistance levels for dollar bulls.

For today, traders may consider shorting USD at 160.75, with a stop loss at 160.90 and targets at 160.00 and 159.80.

EUR/USD
On Wednesday, EUR/USD accelerated lower, broke below the contested 1.1500 area, and touched a three-month low as the North American session drew to a close. The pair’s sharp sell-off was driven by hawkish messaging from the Federal Reserve after it kept interest rates unchanged, broadly in line with expectations, which provided strong support for the U.S. dollar. Traders continued to watch the press conference closely, as Kevin Warsh could signal whether he is leaning toward raising rates to curb inflation or cutting rates, as Trump has long demanded. Any hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers could lift the dollar and create short-term pressure on this major currency pair. Markets estimate a 42.6% probability that the U.S. central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points before year-end. An agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a rebound in risk assets such as the euro. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on Tuesday that President Donald Trump could decide by Friday to announce a preliminary agreement to end the war with Iran, after Trump said the agreement had been signed.

EUR/USD has maintained a multi-day upward bias overall. Interest-rate pricing has quietly shifted in favor of the euro, as the European Central Bank has raised rates, while expectations for a U.S. rate hike by year-end depend on a fading oil-price shock. If Warsh takes a dovish tone, it could act as a catalyst for EUR/USD to eventually return to the 200-day moving average. A hawkish surprise remains the key risk, and a daily close below 1.1550 would suggest that the dollar has won this week’s move. The first resistance is a daily close back below the 200-day moving average at 1.1675; a breakout would open the 1.1700 psychological level, followed by 1.1788, the May 8 high. The daily Stochastic RSI is recovering from the lower half of its range, showing that upside momentum remains. On the support side, Wednesday’s decline held above 1.1478, making it an important support during any pullback. A break below that level would expose the 1.1400 round-number low.

For today, traders may consider going long EUR at 1.1495, with a stop loss at 1.1483 and targets at 1.1540 and 1.1550.

Commodity Analysis
WTI Spot Crude Oil
Oil prices remained under pressure this week after a sharp sell-off, with WTI hovering near a three-month low around USD 75. The market is pricing in expectations of supply recovery following a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement, while a sharp decline in crude imports by importing countries has further weakened spot-market fundamentals. Technically, the daily chart has broken below the lower Bollinger Band. The MACD histogram remains in negative territory and continues to expand, indicating that bearish momentum has yet to show signs of exhaustion. Short-term sentiment and capital flows both point to an extremely weak bearish structure. The market is never short of volatility; the real challenge is identifying the true intent of sentiment and capital flows at critical turning points. In the previous session, WTI fell nearly 5% in a single day. This long bearish candle not only broke through key psychological levels but also left a clear fracture in the technical structure. Bearish Wall Street institutions such as Citi have used the opportunity to amplify optimism around easing geopolitical risks, arguing that the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil has fully faded. They remain bearish on the outlook and expect oil prices to potentially fall toward USD 70 or below.

At present, the market remains uncertain about the stability of the U.S.-Iran agreement. If nuclear negotiations stall or new conflicts emerge, oil prices could rebound rapidly. In addition, global macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar, and unexpected OPEC+ policy adjustments could all change the market direction. Traders should monitor actual Iranian vessel transit data and subsequent forecast updates from major institutions, while preparing appropriate risk hedges. Technically, WTI crude remains in a broad oscillating downtrend on the daily chart. After previously peaking around USD 104-105, prices have continued to retreat and have now broken below USD 80 to reach a stage low of USD 74.73, a three-month low, near the USD 75.00 round-number zone. Prices have fallen below the MA20, MA50, and MA100, with only the MA200 around USD 72.70 providing longer-term support, confirming a clear bearish trend. On the upside, resistance may be watched at USD 80.00, the key psychological level, followed by USD 80.15, Tuesday’s high, and USD 81.26, the 120-day moving average.

For today, traders may consider shorting crude oil at 75.20, with a stop loss at 75.40 and targets at 74.00 and 73.00.

Spot Gold
Gold prices fell to USD 4,250 per ounce on Wednesday, ending a four-session winning streak, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected while signaling that a rate hike may still be possible this year. Half of FOMC members expect that a rate increase may be needed this year, consistent with expectations that core inflation could remain higher than previously anticipated due to the impact of the Middle East war. The Fed had previously indicated that it has room to prioritize price stability, as the latest labor-market data reflected resilience. Precious metals declined as short-term Treasury yields surged, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold relative to interest-bearing securities. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand weakened as both the United States and Iran maintained their intention to sign a ceasefire agreement and restore energy trade. Major European central banks kept rates unchanged, while the Bank of Japan raised rates as expected.

Spot gold broke higher and then pulled back to the midline of the descending channel. With positive news around improved passage through the strait and the Fed keeping rates unchanged, or potentially softening its hawkish guidance, gold may have room for a further rebound, with a measured upside target near USD 4,430. However, caution is still needed if gold weakens, as capital markets have already rebounded significantly in recent sessions. From a technical perspective, gold’s short-term movement is clearly constrained by several key levels. The main resistance is currently at USD 4,369, the high from earlier this week. A breakout above that level would bring further resistance at the USD 4,400 psychological level and the USD 4,461 200-day simple moving average. On the downside, key support is at USD 4,219, this week’s low, while deeper support is located at USD 4,200, the key psychological level. If gold breaks above the resistance zone, further upside may open. If prices fall below the support zone, the current rebound may come to an end. Breakouts around these key levels will directly guide short-term direction.

For today, traders may consider buying gold at 4,250, with a stop loss at 4,245 and targets at 4,300 and 4,310.